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Wallet Net Position Change 365d

Per-cohort supply delta over a rolling 365-day window for macro-cycle view.

Tier proOn-chain Bitcoinsupplynet-position-changemacro-cyclecohort-flowsyear-over-year

What is it?

Yearly variant of Wallet Net Position Change: for each cohort, the metric measures the supply difference held between today and the same date a year earlier. The wide window acts as a low-pass filter, removing monthly and quarterly oscillations to expose structural accumulation or distribution regimes on the cycle scale (roughly 4 years per halving).

How to read

The six curves read around the zero line. Their persistence above or below zero for several months characterizes the current cycle regime. A structural accumulation regime differs from tactical accumulation by the duration and amplitude of the simultaneously-positive curves.

Key zones

Historic yearly accumulation peaks on a single cohort are rare and correspond to bear-market endings. Historic troughs on whale-humpback cohorts correspond to late-bull-run distribution phases. These magnitudes are historical references, not predictive thresholds.

What to observe

Macro inflections on the whale-humpback curve are the most reliable indications: they typically precede structural price moves by 6 to 18 months. 365-day cumulative accumulation is also used as input to broader composites.

Historical context

2019 marked major whale accumulation that preceded the 2020-2021 bull run. The 2022-2023 cycle saw structural humpback accumulation despite the bear market, a classic deep-value accumulation indicator. The post-spot-ETF period launched in January 2024 saw a whale-to-octopus migration toward ETF custodians.

Expert notes

The 365-day window masks internal custody reorganizations and seasonal movements, making it more reliable for identifying real economic flows. It has an intrinsic lag: today's indicator refers to a window that integrates one year ago.

Common mistakes to avoid

A value near zero on a cohort does not mean no movement during the year: large-amplitude accumulations and distributions can cancel out. To disambiguate, compare with the 30-day variant or raw unsmoothed series.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/wallet-netposchange-365d/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "wallet-netposchange-365d",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

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Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.