Smart-Money Absorption Rate 365d
Whale + humpback macro-cycle absorption ratio (365-day window vs yearly issuance) - smart money regime detector.
What is it?
Macro-cycle variant of smart-money absorption rate: compares whale (1k-10k BTC) and humpback (>=10k BTC) wallets' net supply change over 365 days against yearly mining issuance. May 2026 refactor: previous formula summed 6 cohorts and was mathematically bounded at ~1.0 (mined BTC necessarily end up in some cohort). New formula isolates whales+humpbacks whose behavior diverges strongly between bear market (deep-value accumulation) and bull market (late-cycle distribution). The 365-day window captures structural regimes of a complete half-cycle (~2 years).
How to read
Read with the same markers as the 30-day variant but on smoother amplitudes. Sustained values above zero over several months characterize a structural smart money accumulation regime. Sustained values below zero characterize macro distribution phases. Crossing the 1.0 line (smart money absorbs = full issuance) is a strong confirmed bull-market indication.
Key zones
Peaks above 2.0 on the 365-day variant are rare and typically correspond to post-halving structural maximum accumulation phases. Zero values correspond to equilibrium phases. Deeply negative troughs correspond to total capitulation phases.
What to observe
The macro regime determined by this metric is a direct input for cycle composites. Macro inflections (zero or 1.0 crossings) are particularly informative and often precede structural price inflections.
Historical context
The post-halving 2020 period saw a positive smart money regime sustained for 18 months (whale accumulation). The 2022 bear market flipped the ratio to a sustained negative regime (-1.5 to -2) for about a year. The post-halving 2024 saw a short initial accumulation phase, then a massive distribution regime over 2024-2025 (-3 to -4.5), atypical pattern attributable to the January 2024 spot ETF launch rebalancing whale custody toward ETFs.
Expert notes
The metric's macro robustness is high but its short-term predictive power is low. Use alongside other cycle composites for a complete reading of the current regime. The 2024-2026 smart money distribution can be read two ways: (1) classic late-bull end-of-cycle reading, or (2) whale custody rotation into ETFs (humpback as proxy) without true economic distribution. Cross-reference with spot ETF flows + corp-btc-pnl is necessary.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high smart money ratio can coexist with temporary price stagnation or decline if spot flows are satisfied by mining issuance alone. The metric measures structural whale accumulation, not instantaneous buying pressure. A strongly negative ratio does not mark an imminent crash but a whale rotation/redistribution, which can be absorbed by other cohorts (shrimp accumulating in retail bull) or by ETF custodians.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/wallet-absorption-rate-365d/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "wallet-absorption-rate-365d",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.