Supply Shock Momentum OscillatorTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE — First derivative of the illiquid supply ratio, bounded as an oscillator. Detects supply shock acceleration/deceleration.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The Supply Shock Momentum Oscillator calculates the 30-day percentage change of the ratio between illiquid supply (hodled or lost coins) and total circulating supply. A 'supply shock' occurs when illiquid supply absorbs coins faster than normal — this oscillator detects not the shock itself, but its acceleration or deceleration. Values typically oscillate between -15% and +2%, with most activity between -5% and +1%. It is a leading indicator relative to raw Illiquid Supply, as it captures the pace change before the level change becomes visible.
How to read
Positive values: the illiquid supply ratio is increasing over 30 days — accelerating accumulation. Negative values: the ratio is decreasing — the supply shock is dissipating. The oscillator is expressed as a 30-day percentage change. Readings below -5% are rare and historically significant. Zero-line crossovers mark direction changes in supply absorption dynamics.
Key zones
Zone > +1%: notable acceleration of illiquid accumulation, historically associated with post-capitulation accumulation phases. Zone < -5%: rapid supply shock dissolution, observed during massive late-cycle distributions. The -1% to +1% zone reflects normal conditions without strong directional indication.
What to observe
Price/oscillator divergences are the most informative indicator. If price rises but the oscillator falls, the rally is not supported by accelerating illiquid accumulation — historically fragile. If price falls but the oscillator rises, accumulation is intensifying despite the correction — historically constructive. Double bottoms in the oscillator (two successive higher lows) have preceded significant rallies.
Historical context
The most extreme positive oscillator readings were observed in Q1 2019 and Q4 2022, both preceding significant price rises in the following 3–6 months. The most extreme negative readings coincided with the November 2021 distribution and the Terra/Luna debacle in May 2022. The lead indicator varied between 2 and 8 weeks depending on cycles.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model — The compute is a simple pct_change(30) × 100 on the illiquid/supply ratio — no complex normalisation, calculation transparency is a feature. Extreme values (< -10%) correspond to massive distribution episodes from early Bitcoin days. For advanced analysis, overlay the oscillator with Hash Ribbons — when both are positive simultaneously, the combination 'on-chain accumulation + miner capitulation ended' has been a historically robust indication.
Common mistakes to avoid
The oscillator measures the 30-day rate of change, not the absolute level. A value of -2% does not mean illiquid supply is dropping by 2% — it means the illiquid/total RATIO decreased by 2% over 30 days. Similarly, a value going from +1% to +0.5% does not mean a reversal but a deceleration of accumulation. The zero line is the key pivot: above = illiquid ratio increasing, below = decreasing.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/supply-shock-momentum/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "supply-shock-momentum",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.