Supply Mobility Profile
The share of supply expected to move again over its lifetime, drawn separately for the whole supply, long-term holders and short-term holders. Recent coins are almost entirely mobile; the coins held through previous cycles are the ones that account for most of what stays still.
What is it?
This chart answers a forward-looking question: what share of supply will eventually move again? The answer is built from behaviour observed per age range. For each range, a spending rate is measured, namely the volume transferred against the time accumulated by that range's coins. That rate is then extended along the age ranges a coin can still reach in its lifetime, with a decay fitted on the observed history. Summing those rates along the remaining path yields a cumulative exposure, from which a probability of movement is derived. Applied to supply, it separates it into an estimated mobile part and an estimated immobile part. Three curves are drawn: the whole supply, long-term holders, short-term holders, each relative to its own population.
How to read
The gap between the two populations is the primary reading. The short-term curve sits very high, reflecting an expected fact: recently acquired coins have a high spending behaviour and a long life ahead in which to express it. The long-term curve sits markedly lower and it is the one carrying the information: it measures the share of old holdings estimated not to be permanently immobile. The whole-supply curve lies between the two, at a position depending on the relative weight of each population at that moment. It is therefore not an average of the other two, and its movement can come from a change in behaviour as much as from a simple shift of weight between populations.
Key zones
No threshold has an absolute value here, and the full zero-to-one-hundred-percent scale is never traversed. The short-term curve moves in the upper part of the scale and rarely comes down from it. The long-term curve occupies a much wider band and its historical path says more than its current value. The zone that matters is the one separating the two curves: its width measures how differently the two populations behave, and its variation measures how fast that difference widens or closes.
What to observe
Watch the inflections of the long-term curve rather than its level. A rise indicates that the observed behaviour of old ranges has accelerated, which lifts the estimate for the whole population. Then watch the periods where the whole supply moves closer to the long-term curve: they indicate that old holdings weigh more in supply, independently of any change in behaviour. Finally watch the rare moments when the short-term curve bends, more meaningful than they look given its usual stability. The spot price overlay, on by default and removable from the toolbar, relates those inflections to market phases: the three curves are shares of supply and carry no price information on their own.
Historical context
The plot starts once the age ladder reaches four years of observation, that is four years after genesis. That delay is not a comfort precaution: the estimate extends a behaviour along the age ranges a coin can still reach, and while those ranges do not exist, the extrapolated part dominates. On a still-young network this produces abrupt switches, where more than a million coins change category in a single day without any flow justifying it. Over the period actually read, the hierarchy between the two populations was never inverted, and the gap between them moved with the cycles, narrowing after distribution phases where many old coins changed hands.
Expert notes
This chart is an estimate, not a measurement, and that nature must be kept in mind. Extending the spending rate beyond the observed history rests on a decay fit: the older a population, the larger the extrapolated part of its estimate, and therefore the higher the uncertainty. The long-term curve is thus at once the most informative and the most fragile. Also, the boundary between the two populations rests on a conventional holding duration, chosen by the industry rather than derived from a property of the protocol: a coin does not change nature on the day it crosses it.
Common mistakes to avoid
First mistake, reading the estimated mobile share as supply available for sale. A movement is not a sale: a transfer between wallets of the same holder is one. Second mistake, treating the immobile share as lost coins; the estimate bears on a probability of movement, not on a disappearance. Third mistake, reading the whole-supply curve as the average of the other two: it is weighted by population size, and can move while neither of the two has.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/supply-mobility-profile/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "supply-mobility-profile",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.