Skip to content

← On-chain Bitcoin

Position in Supply DistributionTRINITY EXCLUSIVE

Where spot price sits inside the acquisition-price distribution of supply, on a 0 to 100 scale. A reading near 0 places price at the bottom of the market's cost structure, near 100 at its top. The normalization is proprietary to Trinity: it makes readings comparable across cycles whose price levels have nothing in common.

Tier performanceOn-chain Bitcoinvaluationdistributionpositioncycleexclusiveoscillator

Trinity exclusive model

This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.

What is it?

This indicator reduces the full acquisition-price distribution of supply to a single bounded reading. A value of 0 places price at the very bottom of the market's cost structure, in the region where almost no coin was acquired. A value of 100 places it at the top. In between, the reading describes the share of the market that price has cleared. Construction and normalization are proprietary to Trinity Insights and are not disclosed. The reading can move outside its bounds during extreme moves, and that excursion is part of the information.

How to read

Read the value as a rank, not as a price. A low reading indicates price approaching the level at which nearly the whole market would be at a loss. A high reading indicates it clearing the acquisition cost of nearly all supply. The strength of this form is to make cycles comparable when their price levels have nothing in common: the value reached at a low in the network's first decade and at a recent one are read on the same scale.

Key zones

Zones are calibrated on the real percentiles of the measure's full history, not on thresholds chosen in advance. Below 8, the reading belongs to the lowest decile ever observed, a zone in which several major lows have fallen. Between 8 and 32 lies the low zone, under the historical first quartile. Between 32 and 75 sits the body of the distribution, around its median. Between 75 and 89 the high zone. Above 89, the reading belongs to the historical top decile, a zone in which cycle peaks have fallen.

What to observe

Watch excursions into the extreme zones rather than variations inside the body of the distribution, where the indicator spends most of its time without carrying particular information. Watch also how long a stay in the low zone lasts: historical capitulation phases extended over months, not days. Finally watch consistency with classic valuation indicators: convergence reinforces the regime reading, divergence invites asking what one captures and the other misses.

Historical context

Measured across the full available history, the indicator printed very low readings at the lows of January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, at ranks 1, 2 and 10 percent of its own distribution respectively. The March 2020 low stopped higher, at rank 15 percent, the fall having been too fast for the cost base to rebuild. At the December 2017 and November 2013 peaks, readings sat in the very last historical centiles. Four lows and four peaks are too small a sample to found a rule on.

Expert notes

⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model: this indicator has no reference publication in the literature. Its construction, bounds and normalization are proprietary to Trinity Insights and are not disclosed. One property is worth knowing for the informed user: the measure is more stable in its body than at its extremities, because the extreme regions of a distribution rest by nature on a reduced fraction of supply. An extreme reading therefore always benefits from being cross-checked against the full envelope chart, which shows the entire shape rather than its reduction to a single figure.

Common mistakes to avoid

First mistake, treating a low reading as the announcement of a bottom. The indicator describes where price sits within today's cost distribution, it says nothing about tomorrow, and a low reading can stay low for a long time or fall further. Second mistake, reading 50 as an equilibrium point: it is a construction landmark at the middle of the scale, not a value the measure reverts to. Third mistake, comparing this reading with other bounded oscillators assuming a shared scale. Every bounded indicator is calibrated on its own distribution.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/supply-distribution-position/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "supply-distribution-position",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.