Rolling BTC Returns
Rolling multi-window raw return (90 days / 365 days / 30 days) of Bitcoin price. Helps separate short, medium and long horizons of performance for portfolio comparison.
What is it?
Rolling BTC Returns plots for every date the raw return of Bitcoin price across three sliding windows: 90 days, 365 days and 30 days, **expressed as percent**. The applied formula is (price_t / price_(t-N) - 1) × 100 where N is the chosen window. A value of 99.00 means a +99 % return on the window; a value of -50.00 means a -50 % return. Three overlaid curves allow immediate comparison of short-term (30 days), quarterly (90 days) and annual (365 days) performance. The return is raw - without volatility normalisation, without risk-return adjustment.
How to read
Read each curve as an independent rolling return. The 30-day curve is very volatile - it reflects short-term market oscillations. The 90-day curve smooths quarterly noise and captures phase movements. The 365-day curve is the most stable and reflects annual performance in traditional finance sense. The three curves together distinguish durable rallies from ephemeral spikes: a durable rally sees the three windows become positive together; an ephemeral spike only touches the 30-day window.
Key zones
Above 0%: positive return phase on the considered window. Below 0%: negative return phase. Annual rolling returns above +100% characterise euphoric cycle expansion phases. Annual rolling returns below -50% characterise deep bear market phases. The 30-day window is more frequently negative than the 365-day window - a mechanical phenomenon coherent with Bitcoin's long-term uptrend.
What to observe
The alignment of the three curves is the main observation. When the three windows are simultaneously positive and rising, the bull market is confirmed on all horizons - durable momentum phase. When the three windows are simultaneously negative, the bear market is confirmed - continuation risk. Divergence (for example 30-day negative while 365-day positive) characterises a correction within a broader bull market - typical of mid-cycle consolidation phases.
Historical context
Bitcoin rolling returns have structurally decelerated cycle after cycle, a direct consequence of capitalisation base growth. Rolling annual returns above +500% were frequent in the 2013 and 2017 cycles; they became exceptional in the 2021 cycle and beyond. Peaks of 30-day rolling return coincide with parabolic acceleration phases and typically precede cycle tops. Troughs of 365-day rolling return coincide with bear market troughs.
Expert notes
Raw rolling return differs from CAGR - rolling return is arithmetic (cumulated over the window then divided by 1) while CAGR is geometric annualised (power 1/N). For the 365-day window, both measures converge by construction. For windows under 365 days, rolling return is simpler to interpret ('over the last 90 days, price did +X%'), while CAGR does not apply for short horizons. The metric is complementary to Sharpe Ratio Rolling which adds the volatility dimension.
Common mistakes to avoid
Confusing Rolling BTC Returns with Sharpe Ratio Rolling is the most frequent mistake. Sharpe Ratio Rolling normalises return by volatility (risk-adjusted formula = return / standard deviation) - it measures return quality per unit of risk. Rolling BTC Returns measures raw return without risk adjustment. A metric can show very high return while having modest Sharpe if volatility is strong. Also confusing with Returns Comparison which compares cross-asset (BTC vs S&P 500 vs Gold) - Rolling BTC Returns is single-asset, Bitcoin only.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/rolling-btc-returns/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "rolling-btc-returns",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.