DCA CAGR Rolling
Compound Annual Growth Rate of a monthly DCA across 2y / 5y / 8y windows. CAGR is the standard finance metric to compare investment performance on horizons of two years or more.
What is it?
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) annualises the cumulative performance of an investment. The formula is CAGR_X = (1 + cumulative_ROI_over_X_years)^(1/X) - 1. Applied to a monthly DCA strategy, this chart plots the rolling CAGR across three distinct windows: 2 years, 5 years and 8 years. CAGR under 2 years is not exposed because finance convention considers annualisation over less than two years to be statistically non-significant.
How to read
Read each curve as an equivalent annualised rate. A 5-year CAGR at 30% means a monthly DCA initiated 5 years ago delivered a performance equivalent to a compound 30% per year over 5 years. Convergence of the three curves toward the same value indicates long-term Bitcoin performance stability. Persistent divergence (2-year CAGR very different from 8-year CAGR) translates that a major recent event (extreme bull or bear) has locally distorted performance.
Key zones
CAGR above 50% characterises cycle expansion phases where Bitcoin largely outperforms traditional assets. CAGR between 0% and 30% characterises plateau or late bear market phases where the DCA investor remains profitable without euphoria. Negative CAGR is rare on horizons of 5 years or more - it has been briefly observed after the worst historical bear market troughs. The 'long-term US equities' finance benchmark is roughly 7-10% CAGR; Bitcoin has historically delivered several multiples of this baseline.
What to observe
Watch the deceleration of the 8-year CAGR across successive cycles. If the 8-year CAGR structurally declines (for example from 100% per year for the 2013-2017 cycle to 60% per year for the 2017-2021 cycle), it reflects a return maturation typical of an asset moving from 'micro-cap' phase to 'large-cap institutional' phase. The slope of this deceleration is an indicator of Bitcoin's maturity phase as a financial asset.
Historical context
The rolling CAGR for Bitcoin has structurally declined cycle after cycle, a direct consequence of the growing capitalisation base (law of diminishing returns). During cycle euphoria phases, the 2-year CAGR can exceed 200%, reflecting absolutely exceptional returns by traditional finance standards. During cycle troughs, the 2-year CAGR can drop below 0% - but 5-year and 8-year CAGRs have historically remained positive across virtually the entire available window since 2013.
Expert notes
CAGR under 2 years is intentionally not exposed: Vanguard and CFA Institute finance convention considers that annualisation over less than 24 months introduces excessive extrapolation bias. An investor wishing to compare short-term performance should consult the 'DCA Returns Multi-TF' metric (#355) which displays raw cumulative ROI. CAGR is sensitive to start and end dates - a rolling analysis eliminates this calendar bias.
Common mistakes to avoid
Extrapolating a high historical CAGR as a future prediction is the cardinal mistake. Past returns do not guarantee future returns - even more so for a young asset whose capitalisation base has structurally changed between successive cycles. Also confusing CAGR with annual compounded return: CAGR is an annualised geometric measure, not the performance of an isolated year. To compare volatility, use instead the Sharpe Ratio Rolling metric which adjusts return by volatility.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/dca-cagr-rolling/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "dca-cagr-rolling",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.