Retirement Calculator
Interactive projection tool estimating future BTC portfolio value based on on-chain growth models, accumulation rate, and target retirement date. Combines power-law and S2F inputs for scenario planning.
What is it?
The BTC Retirement Calculator is a personal financial projection tool. The user enters: current BTC holdings, periodic accumulation amount (monthly DCA), target retirement date, and estimated annual retirement expenses. The tool projects future portfolio value using several growth models derived from on-chain data: power-law model (Giovani Santostasi), Stock-to-Flow model (PlanB), logarithmic regression model, and conservative model (historical median CAGR). Each model produces a scenario with a different projection.
How to read
The main display shows 4 projection curves (one per model) with uncertainty zones (50% and 90% confidence intervals). A table summarises: projected value at target date, total BTC accumulated, implied annualised return, and whether the retirement goal is met (expenses covered for 25+ years). A visual indicator (green/orange/red) summarises feasibility according to each model.
Key zones
The power-law model suggests a long-term CAGR of ~40-50% declining progressively. S2F suggests halving-linked prices. The logarithmic model projects decelerating but persistent growth. The conservative model uses the 4-year median CAGR (historically ~30-60%). The spread between models illustrates the inherent uncertainty in long-term projections.
What to observe
Play with parameters to understand sensitivity: monthly DCA amount has massive impact on short horizons (<5 years) but marginal on long horizons (>15 years, where return dominates). Target date is the most sensitive parameter: 5 more or fewer years drastically change results due to the exponential component.
Historical context
Bitcoin growth models have a controversial history. PlanB's S2F was widely criticised (non-stationarity, unproven causality). Santostasi's power law is more recent and has better withstood criticism. The calculator presents models as 'scenarios' with their documented limitations, not as predictions.
Expert notes
The tool includes a stress test: simulation of an 80% drawdown at different points in the accumulation period to see the impact on the final goal. Results show that drawdowns early in the accumulation period are beneficial (DCA at low prices), while drawdowns late in the period are devastating. This non-intuitive result is one of the tool's most valuable insights.
Common mistakes to avoid
NONE of these models 'guarantee' a future price. Projections rely on extrapolations of past trends that may not continue. The calculator is a planning and awareness tool, NOT financial advice. Capital gains taxes, inflation, and liquidity needs are not modelled by default (advanced options available).
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/retirement-calculator/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "retirement-calculator",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.