Realized Profit by Cohort (STH vs LTH)
Daily realized profit in USD split by holder cohort: Short-Term Holders (STH, <155d) vs Long-Term Holders (LTH, >155d). Reveals who is taking profit and when — a key cycle timing indicator.
What is it?
Realized Profit by Cohort splits daily on-chain realized profit into two distinct lines: Short-Term Holders (STH, coins held < 155 days) and Long-Term Holders (LTH, coins held ≥ 155 days). Realized profit is calculated by comparing the sale price to the acquisition cost (price at the time of the last UTXO movement) for each spent coin. Only profitable movements are counted here (losses are measured separately). This multi-line chart (value + value2) lets you see both cohorts' behaviour simultaneously and identify regime transitions.
How to read
Two lines are displayed: STH (primary) and LTH (secondary). When the STH line clearly dominates, short-term speculators are massively taking profits — a classic indication of speculative overheating. When the LTH line dominates, experienced investors are distributing — an advanced indicator of end-of-cycle. The absolute amplitude of peaks (in USD/day) indicates profit-taking intensity. STH peaks > $1B/day have historically marked local tops.
Key zones
STH peaks > $500M/day mark aggressive speculator profit-taking. LTH peaks > $300M/day are rare and mark significant smart money distribution — the largest LTH peaks coincided with the final 3–6 months of bull markets. When BOTH lines are near zero simultaneously, the market is in a quiet accumulation phase.
What to observe
Observe the temporal sequence: typically, STH profit rises first (influx of new speculative capital), then LTH profit gradually increases (smart money starts distributing to latecomers). This STH→LTH 'rotation' is the most reliable cycle maturation indicator. Also watch for divergences: rising price with declining realized profit may indicate demand exhaustion despite bullish momentum.
Historical context
STH/LTH cohort analysis was popularised by the work of Checkmate and on-chain analyst teams. During the November 2021 top, LTH realized profit reached record levels for 4 consecutive months — a clear indication of massive distribution. In 2022–2023, both lines collapsed to zero, marking complete capitulation. The recovery of STH profit in early 2023 was one of the first cycle reversal indications.
Expert notes
The 155-day STH/LTH boundary is a standard convention but not universal — some analysts use 90 or 180 days. Realized profit only captures on-chain movements: latent (unrealised) gains are invisible here. The history spans the entire chain (since 2013), enabling robust statistical analysis over several complete cycles. Moderate profit-taking regimes (tens of M$/day per cohort) correspond to breathing phases between accumulation and distribution.
Common mistakes to avoid
High LTH realized profit does NOT automatically mean a cycle top — it may simply indicate portfolio rebalancing. It is the PERSISTENCE of high LTH profits over several weeks/months that is a bearish indication, not an isolated spike. Similarly, high STH profit early in a bull market is healthy (normal rotation); it only becomes concerning in the late euphoric phase.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/realized-profit-cohort/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "realized-profit-cohort",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.