200-Week MA Heatmap
Bitcoin price colored by percentage above or below its 200-week moving average. Bright red zones have historically marked exhaustion tops; deep blue zones mark historically significant accumulation zones.
What is it?
The 200W MA Heatmap calculates the ratio of Bitcoin's price to its 200-week (~1400-day, ~3.8 years) moving average and colour-codes the result. A high ratio (price well above the 200WMA) is coloured red/orange, indicating overheating. A ratio near or below 1.0 (price near or below the 200WMA) shifts to purple/blue, marking accumulation periods. The gradient runs from deep purple (low ratio, cooling) to bright red (high ratio, overheating).
How to read
Warm colours (orange, red) appear when price causes the very long-term trend to accelerate - typically during parabolic phases. Cool colours (purple, blue) mark that the long trend is decelerating, historically coinciding with the best accumulation windows.
Key zones
Red colour peaks coincided with the 2013, 2017, and 2021 tops. The shift to deep purple has historically marked bear market floors (2015, 2018-2019, 2022). The transition from purple to green/yellow accompanies the start of bull markets.
What to observe
Watch colour transitions rather than absolute colours. A shift from green to yellow-orange over several weeks suggests accelerating overheating. Conversely, cooling from red to yellow may precede a significant correction.
Historical context
The 200W MA has never been broken in a sustained manner in Bitcoin's history (briefly tested in 2015, 2020, and 2022). This support has made the heatmap a particularly effective accumulation tool: purple zones have historically preceded positive returns over 2+ years.
Expert notes
The 200W MA support robustness is partly self-fulfilling: many market participants use it as an accumulation reference. The heatmap adds a gradient dimension compared to simply testing the MA, improving relative timing. However, with market maturation (declining structural volatility), red zones may become rarer or less extreme.
Common mistakes to avoid
Assuming 'purple = accumulate immediately' is simplistic. Purple phases can last months, and the exact bottom is only visible in hindsight. The heatmap identifies zones, not precise entry points. Moreover, a sustained break below the 200W MA would invalidate the historical support hypothesis.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/200-week-ma-heatmap/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "200-week-ma-heatmap",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.