LTH/STH SOPR Ratio
Ratio of Long-Term Holder SOPR to Short-Term Holder SOPR. When LTH are taking outsized profits relative to STH, the ratio spikes — marking distribution. When it drops below 0.37, it historically marks extreme capitulation zones.
What is it?
The LTH/STH SOPR Ratio divides the Long-Term Holder SOPR (coins > 155 days) by the Short-Term Holder SOPR (coins < 155 days). The result measures who is taking more relative profit at any given time. When the ratio is high (>10), LTH are realising profit multiples far exceeding STH — typically at cycle tops when 'old hands' distribute to new entrants. When the ratio drops below ~0.37, LTH are suffering as much or more than STH — a historically rare deep capitulation indication.
How to read
The ratio is displayed on log scale with BTC price overlay. Above 10: LTH taking massive profits → distribution, potential cycle top. Between 1 and 10: normal regime, LTH are naturally more profitable. Below 1: STH more profitable than LTH — abnormal situation, often transitory. Below 0.37 (alert line): extreme LTH capitulation — historically a major buy indicator.
Key zones
The 0.37 alert line was touched at the absolute troughs of 2011, 2015, 2018 and approached in 2022. Spikes above 50-100 marked the tops of 2013 (double top), 2017 and 2021. The 1-10 zone is the 'normal' bull market regime.
What to observe
Observe the ratio's trend, not absolute values. A consistently declining ratio during a bull market marks LTH beginning to distribute — early top warning. A ratio rising from low levels marks LTH regaining their profitability advantage — bull transition underway.
Historical context
The ratio captured all 4 major cycle troughs with remarkable precision. In 2011 (~0.22), 2015 (~0.30), 2018 (~0.35), and 2022 (~0.42), drops below 0.37 marked the optimal accumulation zone. The 0.37 threshold is empirical but statistically robust across 4 cycles. Tops show secular peak compression (>400 in 2013, ~100 in 2017, ~80 in 2021), consistent with market maturation.
Expert notes
The ratio is very volatile daily as both STH and LTH SOPR are noisy. The MA(7) is essential for smoothing the reading. On log scale, movements are symmetric: a doubling (2x) and a halving (0.5x) occupy the same visual distance, making reading more intuitive. The ratio is mechanically biased upward in bull markets (LTH having lower cost basis, their SOPR is naturally higher) — this bias is precisely what makes drops below 1 so significant.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high ratio does NOT mean LTH are 'mass selling'. It means when they do sell, they realise much higher profits than STH. LTH selling volume can be very low even when the ratio is high. To assess actual sell pressure, cross-reference with Transfer Volume and Revived Supply. Also, the 0.37 threshold is calibrated on only 4 cycles — a statistically limited sample.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/lth-sth-sopr-ratio/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "lth-sth-sopr-ratio",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.