Lightning Yield CurveTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
Fee rates plotted against channel capacity size, forming Bitcoin's first native yield curve. Small channels charge more per sat routed; large channels offer bulk discounts - mirroring traditional bond markets.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
In traditional bond markets, the yield curve shows interest rates as a function of loan duration. In the Lightning Network, an analogous concept emerges: routing fee rates vary by channel size. Small channels generally charge more per routed satoshi (less liquidity = premium), while large channels offer 'bulk discounts'. This scatter plot shows the relationship between channel capacity and fee rate, forming a native Bitcoin 'yield curve'.
How to read
The X-axis shows channel capacity (in BTC, log scale), the Y-axis shows the fee rate (in ppm). Each dot represents a channel. The regression curve shows the general trend. A downward (normal) curve means large channels are cheaper - economy of scale. A flat curve means competition has equalized prices. An inversion (large channels more expensive than small) would be very unusual and would mark dislocation.
Key zones
Micro-channels (<0.01 BTC) typically have fees of 500-5000 ppm. Medium channels (0.01-1 BTC): 50-500 ppm. Large channels (>1 BTC): 1-100 ppm. The curve shape varies over time and its flattening or steepening is informative.
What to observe
Compare snapshots at different dates to see how the curve evolves. Gradual flattening indicates market maturation and increased competition. Sudden steepening may indicate a liquidity shock (small operators raising prices). Outliers well above the curve are non-competitive nodes; those below are volume-seeking nodes.
Historical context
This concept is structurally new - introduced by Trinity Insights, without a consolidated equivalent in the on-chain literature. The typical observed curve shape is downward with an elbow around 0.1 BTC capacity, consistent with expected behavior of a mature liquidity market. 📌 Methodological note 2026-05-18: from this date, the scatter is computed from a different methodological source (daily snapshot of top Lightning network nodes), which may introduce a visible level shift on the dispersion and regression at that date. Structural trends (downward slope, price/capacity elasticity) remain valid; pre/post-2026-05-18 absolute comparisons must account for this methodological discontinuity.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - The curve is constructed from gossip data (channel_update messages) at a point in time. Private channels and zero-fee channels (often internal connections) are excluded. Log scale on the X-axis is necessary because channel size distribution follows a power law. The log-log regression (dashed gold line) materializes the general yield curve trend. **Sampling note**: the current sample scans channels from top 25 nodes by connectivity (~240 channels), which may under-represent micro-channels from mobile wallets. The observed slope depends on this sample - a broader sample (top 100+) would yield a more representative curve and is planned in dedicated future lot.
Common mistakes to avoid
This is NOT exactly a yield curve in the bond sense (no duration/maturity). It is a structural analogy: the price of liquidity as a function of the amount made available. Do not use it to directly compare with sovereign rate curves.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/ln-yield-curve/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "ln-yield-curve",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.