Lightning Yield Curve
Fee rates plotted against channel capacity size, forming Bitcoin's first native yield curve. On the sampled routing nodes the curve slopes upward: larger channels are actively priced, while small ones mostly keep the software default.
What is it?
In traditional bond markets, the yield curve shows interest rates as a function of loan duration. The Lightning Network offers a comparable object: the price of liquidity as a function of the amount made available. This scatter plots, for each capacity bucket, the median fee rate of the observed channels. On the sampled set (the channels of the best-connected nodes), the curve SLOPES UPWARD with capacity: large channels belong to professional routers who price them actively, while small channels mostly keep the software's very low default. The bond analogy therefore frames the question, not the observed answer.
How to read
The X-axis shows capacity (in BTC, log scale), the Y-axis the bucket's median fee rate (in ppm). Each dot is a capacity bucket, its size reflecting how many channels it holds. The dashed line is the log-log regression. On the sampled set the slope is UPWARD: that is the usual regime, not an anomaly. Read the gap between the ends rather than the direction of the slope: a narrowing gap means large routers are cutting prices or small operators are starting to price; a widening gap means the opposite.
Key zones
Three regimes stand out on the sampled set. Small buckets sit near the floor, at the node software's default rate: their median barely moves. Middle buckets mark the shift to deliberate pricing. Large buckets carry the highest fees, and they account for the whole slope. What informs is not the absolute level, which depends on the sample, but the gap between the floor and the top of the curve, and how that gap moves.
What to observe
Compare snapshots at different dates to see how the curve evolves. Gradual flattening indicates market maturation and increased competition. Sudden steepening may indicate a liquidity shock (small operators raising prices). Outliers well above the curve are non-competitive nodes; those below are volume-seeking nodes.
Historical context
This concept is structurally new - introduced by Trinity Insights, without a consolidated equivalent in the on-chain literature. The observed shape slopes upward: it reflects the sampled set (the channels of the best-connected nodes) more than any law of the whole network. A sample including mobile wallets' micro-channels would most likely give a different slope. 📌 Methodological note 2026-05-18: from this date, the scatter is computed from a different methodological source (daily snapshot of top Lightning network nodes), which may introduce a visible level shift on the dispersion and regression at that date. The price/capacity elasticity remains readable; pre/post-2026-05-18 absolute comparisons must account for this methodological discontinuity.
Expert notes
The curve is constructed from gossip data (channel_update messages) at a point in time. Private channels and zero-fee channels (often internal connections) are excluded. Log scale on the X-axis is necessary because channel size distribution follows a power law. The log-log regression (dashed gold line) materializes the general yield curve trend. **Sampling note**: the current sample scans channels from top 25 nodes by connectivity (~240 channels), which may under-represent micro-channels from mobile wallets. The observed slope depends on this sample - a broader sample (top 100+) would yield a more representative curve and is planned in dedicated future lot.
Common mistakes to avoid
This is NOT exactly a yield curve in the bond sense (no duration/maturity). It is a structural analogy: the price of liquidity as a function of the amount made available. Do not use it to directly compare with sovereign rate curves.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/ln-yield-curve/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "ln-yield-curve",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.