Cross-Layer Yield SpreadTRINITY EXCLUSIVE

Trinity exclusive model

This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.

What is it?

For the first time in Bitcoin's history, there are multiple ways to 'put to work' BTC across different layers: route payments on Lightning (earn fees), or stack STX on Stacks (earn PoX rewards in BTC). This chart compares these two native Bitcoin 'yield rates'. The spread between them reveals where capital prefers to go - and when yields diverge strongly, it marks a market inefficiency or structural shift.

How to read

Two curves: Lightning routing annualized yield and Stacks stacking annualized yield. The area between them is colored: green when Lightning dominates (liquidity crunch), red when Stacks dominates (DeFi attractive). A curve crossover is an indication of regime change in capital allocation.

Key zones

When the spread is positive (Lightning > Stacks), payment liquidity demand dominates. When the spread is negative (Stacks > Lightning), capital prefers DeFi. A zero spread indicates a rare equilibrium. Rapid spread inversions (sign change in less than a week) are the most powerful indicators.

What to observe

This chart is the first 'native Bitcoin interest rate'. Watch long-term trends: if Lightning yield structurally increases, it means the Bitcoin payment economy is developing. If Stacks yield increases, BTCFi is attracting capital. Both rising simultaneously = general Bitcoin ecosystem adoption.

Historical context

This composite is structurally new - the on-chain literature does not provide a consolidated equivalent. Early observations show both yields remain in a low range (typically 1-5% annualized) and volatile. The concept of a 'Bitcoin yield curve' remains largely unexplored in academic financial literature. 📌 Methodological note 2026-05-18: from this date, Lightning yield is derived from a different methodological source for the underlying `ln-fee-rate-evolution` metric. This may introduce a visible level shift on the spread (Lightning yield - Stacks yield) at that date. Trends remain valid; pre/post-2026-05-18 absolute comparisons must account for this methodological discontinuity.

Expert notes

⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - Lightning yield is estimated by annualizing median routing fees relative to median channel capacity. This is an approximation - actual returns vary enormously based on node positioning. Stacks PoX yield is more direct (rewards/STX stacked). Warning: neither yield is risk-free - Lightning routing exposes to force-close risk, and stacking exposes to smart contract risk.

Common mistakes to avoid

This is NOT an investment comparison. Yields are not risk-adjusted and do not account for operational costs (electricity, bandwidth, node maintenance). It is a capital flow indicator, not an investment decision tool.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/ln-cross-layer-yield-spread/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "ln-cross-layer-yield-spread",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

• ln-fee-rate-evolution
• ln-yield-curve
• layer-rotation-velocity

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.