Key Cost Basis Levels
BTC price overlaid with three major cost basis markers (Realized Price global + STH + LTH) to reveal psychological supports and resistances on-chain.
What is it?
This educational chart overlays three on-chain cost basis markers on the BTC price: (1) the global Realized Price (volume-weighted average cost of all circulating supply), (2) the STH Realized Price (average cost of short-term holders, < 155 days), and (3) the LTH Realized Price (average cost of long-term holders, > 155 days). Together these three levels draw the Bitcoin market's structural grid — each line acts as a major psychological support in bull markets and as dynamic resistance in bear markets. The cost basis on-chain concept stems from the established convention of Bitcoin UTXO analysis, which values each coin at its last movement price.
How to read
Horizontal axis is time, vertical axis is USD price (log scale enabled by default to reveal secular growth). BTC price appears in white as the dominant curve. The three cost bases are colored distinctly: global Realized Price (aggregate reference), STH-RP (reactive, tracks new entrants), LTH-RP (slow, structural floor). Three-step reading: (1) spot vs global Realized Price gap shows aggregate profit/loss regime, (2) spot position relative to STH-RP captures short-term sentiment, (3) spot-to-LTH-RP distance measures the safety margin before total capitulation.
Key zones
Five structural zones emerge. Zone A — Spot > global Realized Price > STH-RP > LTH-RP: confirmed bull regime, all cohorts in profit. Zone B — Spot < global Realized Price: aggregate market in unrealised loss (deep bear regime, historically observed roughly 15-25 % of the long-term record). Zone C — Spot < STH-RP: short-term capitulation, recent buyers enter loss, typical of marked correction phases. Zone D — Spot < LTH-RP: total capitulation, even conviction holders are at a loss — a rare condition historically aligned with absolute cycle troughs. Zone E — Convergence STH-RP ↘ LTH-RP: prolonged bear phase where recent costs approach historical costs.
What to observe
Three institutional patterns to watch over time. Pattern 1 — Bullish cross: STH-RP crosses LTH-RP upward, typical of a prolonged bear ending where new entrants buy at high prices while long-term costs remain low. Pattern 2 — Bearish cross: LTH-RP crosses spot upward, an extreme condition heralding a final capitulation zone. Pattern 3 — Convergence of the three cost bases: curves draw together, typical of long bear endings where the structural grid compresses before a new bull cycle. The STH-RP to LTH-RP gap is a cycle-maturity gauge — wide near bull tops, narrow at bear bottoms.
Historical context
Historically, drops of spot below the global Realized Price marked the major cycle troughs (observed in 2011, 2015, 2018-2019, 2022). Drops below the LTH Realized Price are even rarer and coincide with absolute bottoms — observations limited to four occurrences over the network's full history. Bullish cycles typically start with a STH-RP ↗ LTH-RP cross, marking a structural recovery. Cycle tops are preceded by a maximal widening of the grid (STH-RP far above the LTH-RP), pointing to late-stage speculative inflow.
Expert notes
This chart is designed as an educational hero (Free tier) to introduce the on-chain cost basis concept to the broad public. It does not replace granular analyses (URPD cohorts, cost-basis heatmaps) but provides the immediate visual context to situate BTC price against major psychological levels. Going further: (a) the True Market Mean Price (Cointime reference) corrects the bias of long-dormant ancient coins embedded in the global Realized Price; (b) the Active Cap weights by coinblocks to reveal the cost basis of economically active participants. Both metrics are available as standalone charts in the Cointime family (relatedMetrics).
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not confuse on-chain cost bases with chartist technical levels: cost bases are computed from real on-chain activity (UTXO movements) and cannot be manually adjusted. A cost basis broken downward is a structural event (underwater cohorts), not a chartist support break. Conversely, a newly crossed cost basis is not a technical entry but a cycle-maturation event. Additionally, these levels are aggregate weighted averages — within each cohort, individual cost dispersion is still very wide, so use these lines as macro attention levels rather than dollar-precise targets.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/key-cost-basis-originals/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "key-cost-basis-originals",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.