HODLer Conviction Score
Composite conviction score (0-100) = (1 - Liveliness) × (hodled_or_lost_supply / total_supply) × 100. High score = majority of supply dormant AND few old coins moving.
What is it?
HODLer Conviction Score multiplies network vaultedness (1 - Liveliness) by the percentage of supply in illiquid state (hodled_or_lost_supply / supply), then scales ×100. Liveliness measures the ratio of coin-days destroyed to coin-days created: when few old coins move, Liveliness is low and (1-Liveliness) is high. Illiquid supply percentage captures the fraction of supply in dormant state. The product gives a composite conviction score: high when coins are not moving AND a large proportion is illiquid.
How to read
Score > 30: strong conviction, majority of supply is dormant and few old coins are moving. Score 15-30: moderate conviction. Score < 15: weak conviction, coins are actively moving and/or illiquid supply is declining. In late-bull phases, the score structurally trends to lower levels (dormancy exit); in prolonged bear markets, it gradually rises (silent accumulation).
Key zones
The score is structurally bounded by Liveliness (~0.55-0.70) and hodl_pct (~0.30-0.40). Historically: (1-0.55) × 0.40 × 100 = 18 (high conviction), (1-0.70) × 0.30 × 100 = 9 (low conviction). Typical range is 10-25.
What to observe
Score trend is more informative than absolute level. A sustained rising score indicates progressive conviction strengthening (coins aging, supply solidifying). A rapidly falling score indicates activation of dormant coins.
Historical context
Early days (2009-2011) show high scores (>50) as nearly all supply was hodled. The score tends to decline across cycles as Liveliness structurally increases with network maturity. The max of 100 can only be reached if Liveliness=0 and hodl_pct=1 (impossible in practice).
Expert notes
the (1-Liveliness) × hodl_pct × 100 product as a composite conviction score is a proprietary formulation. Both components come from the cointime economics framework (ARK Invest / David Puell 2023). Vaultedness (1-Liveliness) is mathematically equivalent to the cointime framework's vaultedness. hodl_pct uses hodled_or_lost_supply which includes lost coins, maintaining a structural floor for the score.
Common mistakes to avoid
This score does not measure 'conviction' in the psychological sense - it measures the mathematical product of two on-chain metrics. Coins may be 'immobile' because they are lost, not because holders are convinced. The term 'conviction' is an interpretation, not a direct measure of holder intent.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/hodler-conviction-score/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "hodler-conviction-score",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.