HODLer Conviction ScoreTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Composite conviction score (0-100) = (1 - Liveliness) × (hodled_or_lost_supply / total_supply) × 100. High score = majority of supply dormant AND few old coins moving.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
HODLer Conviction Score multiplies network vaultedness (1 - Liveliness) by the percentage of supply in illiquid state (hodled_or_lost_supply / supply), then scales ×100. Liveliness measures the ratio of coin-days destroyed to coin-days created: when few old coins move, Liveliness is low and (1-Liveliness) is high. Illiquid supply percentage captures the fraction of supply in dormant state. The product gives a composite conviction score: high when coins are not moving AND a large proportion is illiquid.
How to read
Score > 30: strong conviction, majority of supply is dormant and few old coins are moving. Score 15-30: moderate conviction. Score < 15: weak conviction, coins are actively moving and/or illiquid supply is declining. In late-bull phases, the score structurally trends to lower levels (dormancy exit); in prolonged bear markets, it gradually rises (silent accumulation).
Key zones
The score is structurally bounded by Liveliness (~0.55-0.70) and hodl_pct (~0.30-0.40). Historically: (1-0.55) × 0.40 × 100 = 18 (high conviction), (1-0.70) × 0.30 × 100 = 9 (low conviction). Typical range is 10-25.
What to observe
Score trend is more informative than absolute level. A sustained rising score indicates progressive conviction strengthening (coins aging, supply solidifying). A rapidly falling score indicates activation of dormant coins.
Historical context
Early days (2009-2011) show high scores (>50) as nearly all supply was hodled. The score tends to decline across cycles as Liveliness structurally increases with network maturity. The max of 100 can only be reached if Liveliness=0 and hodl_pct=1 (impossible in practice).
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - the (1-Liveliness) × hodl_pct × 100 product as a composite conviction score is a proprietary formulation. Both components come from the cointime economics framework (ARK Invest / David Puell 2023). Vaultedness (1-Liveliness) is mathematically equivalent to the cointime framework's vaultedness. hodl_pct uses hodled_or_lost_supply which includes lost coins, maintaining a structural floor for the score.
Common mistakes to avoid
This score does not measure 'conviction' in the psychological sense - it measures the mathematical product of two on-chain metrics. Coins may be 'immobile' because they are lost, not because holders are convinced. The term 'conviction' is an interpretation, not a direct measure of holder intent.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/hodler-conviction-score/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "hodler-conviction-score",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.