Hodled or Lost Supply
Supply structurally out of circulation - coins dormant more than seven years plus provably lost coins. Quantifies the illiquid floor of the market.
What is it?
Aggregate composed of two components: (1) the supply share that has not moved for more than 7 years - conservative threshold capturing the cohort of most persistent hodlers; (2) verifiably lost coins via specific on-chain fingerprints (discarded private keys, burned addresses, known compromised wallets). The metric is rendered in two series: native quantity in BTC and corresponding USD value at spot price.
How to read
Two curves on distinct axes. The BTC curve is structurally increasing (the number of coins out of the market can only grow). The USD curve oscillates with BTC price but retains a growing macro trend due to both components expanding. Toggle each series via the legend to isolate quantity or valuation. The BTC price overlay toggle visualizes USD/price correlation.
Key zones
No fixed zones. Observe slope breaks on the BTC curve: acceleration indicates the 7y+ cohort absorbs a wave of new coins from the previous era crossing the threshold. Slope slowdown indicates fewer UTXOs cross the 7-year threshold, a rarer configuration because the cohort structurally can only grow.
What to observe
Observe the Hodled-and-Lost / Total Supply proportion (approximately 19 to 23 percent historically, structurally growing). Crossing psychological percentage thresholds reinforces the scarcity narrative. USD/BTC divergences are interesting: stagnant USD valuation while BTC quantity grows indicates a low-price phase despite structural accumulation.
Historical context
The metric exists since around 2016, when the 7y+ cohort becomes statistically significant (the first coins mined in 2009 cross 7 years in 2016). Historical evolution shows near-monotonic growth: each cycle adds a layer of dormant non-liquidated coins, plus accumulated irreversible losses. Post-halving phases typically record slope accelerations due to the growing number of old UTXOs crossing the threshold.
Expert notes
The 7-year threshold is conservative - some analyses use 5 years, 10 years, or other values. The 7-year choice is a recognized compromise: long enough to exclude tactical hodlers but short enough to remain statistically meaningful over post-2016 history. The lost-coins component depends on flagged-address inventory; it potentially underestimates true losses. Aggregating the two components produces a lower bound of effectively illiquid supply.
Common mistakes to avoid
Hodled or Lost Supply is not synonymous with supply definitively out of market - 7y+ UTXOs can awaken (historically rare but not null). An old-cohort awakening would temporarily reduce the metric's BTC quantity. Do not confuse with LTH Supply (Long Term Holder) which uses the 155-day threshold: Hodled or Lost Supply is a strict subset of LTH, capturing deeper conviction.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/hodled-or-lost-supply/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "hodled-or-lost-supply",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.