Floor Confluence
The highest price at which one of four independently calibrated conditions becomes extreme. One family tests price against its cost basis, the other tests loss across three different weightings of supply. The envelope adds no valuation formula of its own: it simply reports whichever condition is reached first as price falls.
What is it?
This chart is not one more valuation model. It aggregates four extremeness tests built separately, and keeps the highest of the four at each date. Those four tests fall into two families, drawn here as two distinct curves under the envelope. The relative family looks at price against the acquisition cost of supply, and identifies how far below that cost the market has travelled in its history. The loss family proceeds differently: it learns, from prior days only, the loss threshold the market has rarely exceeded, then inverts that threshold to derive the corresponding price in the current cost distribution. That second test is run under three different weightings of supply, which yields three lines reduced here to their maximum. The envelope is therefore, by construction, identical to whichever of the two families sits higher.
How to read
Read first which family carries the envelope, and when they hand over to each other. The plot shows it directly: both families are drawn dashed underneath the solid envelope, and whichever one carries it merges with it, while the other stays visibly below. That is the chart's primary information: the condition reached first as price falls is not always the same, and a change in its nature says something about the prevailing regime. An envelope carried by the relative family describes a market where the gap to acquisition cost is the binding factor; an envelope carried by the loss family describes a market where the amount of supply that would flip into loss becomes the constraint. Then read the distance between spot price and the envelope: the price overlay is on by default, and the toolbar lets you remove it. Logarithmic scale is available and recommended: the history spans several orders of magnitude, and a linear scale flattens the early years until they become unreadable.
Key zones
There is no fixed threshold to remember, and that is deliberate: the envelope is a moving level, not a constant. The zone that matters is the one separating price from the envelope. When price moves clearly above it, none of the four conditions is near its extreme and the chart says nothing beyond that. When price moves closer, the first of the four conditions is about to be reached. When price moves below it, the condition has been crossed: that has happened, and the chart makes no claim that it is impossible.
What to observe
Watch the hand-overs between families rather than the levels themselves. A hand-over indicates that the nature of the constraint has changed, often after a significant move in supply rather than in price. Then watch how the envelope behaves during declines: it keeps rising as long as the acquisition cost of supply progresses, which narrows the gap far faster than the fall in price alone would. Finally, watch the rare episodes where price crossed the envelope, and above all how long it stayed below.
Historical context
The available history begins at the first halving, the date from which the four references exist simultaneously. No further warm-up delay is imposed, because the envelope reads a price level and not a count of distribution tails: a level stays readable as soon as its references exist. Over that period, the relative family carried the envelope most of the time, and hand-overs to the loss family clustered in phases where supply acquired at high levels was most abundant. Price moved below the envelope on several occasions, in late bear markets.
Expert notes
Three points that change the reading. First, the envelope adds no formula: it merely reports the maximum of existing lines, so its value has no more grounding than that of the line carrying it at that moment. Second, the loss family learns its thresholds from prior days only, which protects it from knowing the future but makes it slow to absorb a genuinely new regime. Third, and this is the limitation shared by the whole chart, a coin's acquisition cost is approximated by the price of its last movement: a transfer between two wallets of the same holder is therefore counted as an acquisition at that day's price, which artificially raises the market's measured cost.
Common mistakes to avoid
First mistake, treating the envelope as a guaranteed floor. It is a downside reference level, nothing more, and a fast panic can pass through every line without stopping. Second mistake, believing a crossing must be accompanied by a reversal: nothing in the construction obliges the market to react to a statistical level. Third mistake, reading the envelope's value without looking at which family carries it, which amounts to ignoring the only information this chart adds over a single line.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/floor-confluence/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "floor-confluence",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.