Fee Revenue Z-Score
Z-score 90-day rolling on daily fees revenue. Extreme spikes (|Z| > 5) are physically legitimate and mark halvings, Ordinals waves and cycle peaks - the metric is preserved raw without smoothing for institutional honesty.
What is it?
This indicator measures the 90-day rolling z-score of `fees_sum_24h` (daily sum of transaction fees paid to miners). Formula : Z = (s - mean_90(s)) / std_90(s). A high z-score indicates a high-fee environment (congested mempool, block space demand exceeding supply) ; a low z-score indicates a low-fee environment (quiet mempool). The ±1σ and ±2σ horizontal thresholds materialize the statistical reference bands on the Y axis. No smoothing is applied to the raw z-score in order to preserve the real amplitude of events (halvings, Ordinals waves, cycle peaks).
How to read
Y axis centered on 0 with ±1σ and ±2σ horizontal thresholds. Z-score >+2σ = extreme high-fee environment historically coinciding with cycle top phases (euphoria + congestion). Z-score <-1σ = low-fee environment historically coinciding with cycle bottom phases (capitulation + low activity). Crossing of the 0 line = regime shift. **Why such extreme spikes?** Bitcoin daily fees have a fat-tail (non-gaussian) distribution : 99 % of the time fees oscillate in a moderate band, but during structural events (halvings, inscription waves, cycle euphoric peaks) daily fees can double or triple in 24h, producing z-scores >5σ or >7σ which are perfectly legitimate statistically. These spikes are the very signature of the indicator - smoothing them would amputate the data.
Key zones
Zone +2σ and above : extreme mempool congestion, historically associated with cycle peaks (Ordinals waves, bull runs with strong activity). Zone -1σ to -3σ : structural quiet phase, historically associated with deep bear market phases. Zone -1σ to +1σ : normal regime (~68% of time).
What to observe
Compare with `puell-multiple` : high fee z-score + high Puell = miner profitability peak (subsidy + fees) = cycle top phase. Low fee z-score + low Puell = maximum miner stress = cycle bottom phase. Also watch divergence with price : fees rising without price rise = authentic on-chain activity (not speculation).
Historical context
Ordinals waves (genesis 2023-01-20, BRC-20 March-April 2023, Runes April 2024) produced historically extreme fee z-scores (>+3σ for several weeks). The 2022 bear market (post-FTX collapse 2022-11-11) produced a persistent <-1σ z-score for ~12 months. The 2024-04-19 halving structurally reduced the subsidy (3.125 BTC/block), increasing the relative weight of fees in miner revenue - the metric gains importance with every future halving.
Expert notes
The 90d rolling absorbs permanent structural changes in ~3 months (e.g. Ordinals emergence early 2023). For a recent structural event, complement with a 30d z-score (more reactive short-term) and a 365d z-score (long-cycle macro perspective). The ±σ ribbon allows visual detection of regime exits without depending on absolute thresholds which drift cycle after cycle.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high fee z-score does not mechanically imply cycle top risk : a structural event (Ordinals genesis, Runes wave) can produce a temporary peak not followed by price correction. Conversely, a low z-score does not imply a cycle bottom : the 2018 phase saw low fee z-scores without immediate final capitulation. To be combined with other cycle markers (MVRV, SOPR cohorts, RHODL).
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/fee-revenue-zscore-ribbon/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "fee-revenue-zscore-ribbon",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.