Cycle Rarity Meter
Composite multi-factor on-chain score measuring how rare the current cycle state is versus the full historical distribution. Empirical percentile bands (p01 / p05 / p95 / p99) frame the central score, marking ultra-rare and extreme zones.
What is it?
The Cycle Rarity Meter aggregates several on-chain factors (valuation positioning, momentum, realised distribution, cohort dynamics) into a composite score measuring the empirical rarity of the current market state. The score is bounded by four historical percentile bands: p01 and p05 (low ultra-rare zones, deep capitulation); p95 and p99 (high ultra-rare zones, extreme euphoria). An implicit median balances the distribution. The further the score deviates from the median, the rarer the cycle state statistically in the history.
How to read
The central line = composite score. The p01/p05 (low) and p95/p99 (high) bands are empirical thresholds calibrated on the full distribution since genesis. A score exiting the p05-p95 bands indicates a rare zone (statistically < 5% of historical time). An exit from p01-p99 marks an ultra-rare zone (< 1% of historical time). Band transitions are useful observations for positioning the cycle in its historical context.
Key zones
Score < p05 → rare low zone, historically associated with deep capitulation phases. Score < p01 → ultra-rare, typical observation at absolute cycle lows. Score > p95 → rare high zone, historically associated with euphoria phases. Score > p99 → ultra-rare, typical observation at absolute cycle peaks. Score between p05 and p95 → normal distribution, ordinary cycle state.
What to observe
Track score transitions across percentile bands: a downward crossing of p99 historically marks the start of the post-euphoria redistribution phase. An upward crossing of p01 historically marks the start of the post-capitulation accumulation phase. Intermediate zones (between p05 and p95) are ordinary market phases where the score oscillates without strong timing information.
Historical context
Multi-factor composite meters draw inspiration from industrial on-chain analysis where several metrics are combined into a normalized score (typical of Bitcoin cycle oscillators since 2018). Percentile calibration on the full history (since genesis 2009) ensures an exhaustive empirical reference - each threshold is anchored in an observed past probability, not an arbitrary heuristic. Score reliability improves with each additional historical cycle.
Expert notes
The Cycle Rarity Meter is a composite multi-factor on-chain score built from native primitive series indexed from the Bitcoin full node (MVRV positioning, SOPR momentum, cohort distribution, etc.). Its exact formula is not publicly documented but reproducible via inspection of the open-source on-chain code producing the series. The 4 historical percentiles (p01, p05, p95, p99) are empirical bands recalibrated continuously - they are not fixed. Trinity audit tolerance 2.5% (multi-factor composite, amplified variance). 14-day warm-up period post-deployment for stable percentile calibration.
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not confuse this metric with Market Cycle Phase (`market-cycle-phase`) which identifies a discrete phase among four (accumulation/markup/distribution/markdown) based on a composite MVRV+SOPR+Supply in Profit. The Cycle Rarity Meter measures continuous empirical rarity, not a discrete phase. An upward exit from the p05 band does not mean an immediate peak - the p95 zone is rare but not intransitive; the score can remain there for weeks before returning. Historical percentiles recalibrate with each new observation, which can slightly shift thresholds over time.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/epoch-rarity-meter/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "epoch-rarity-meter",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.