TLOI - Trinity Liquidation Outlier IndexTRINITY EXCLUSIVE

Trinity exclusive model

This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.

What is it?

TLOI describes the intensity of Bitcoin liquidations on perpetual contracts, drawing notably on long and short liquidations. Its construction is proprietary and not disclosed. The result is bounded between 0 (particularly calm regime) and 100 (particularly violent regime). This framing makes the reading directly interpretable and stable across structural market shifts (aggregate OI growth, ETF adoption, expanding exchange base).

How to read

The Y-axis displays the percentile between 0 and 100. Above 90: the day belongs to the top 10% most liquidative days of the past year - macro stress event. Above 95: top 5% - major market purge. Between 50 and 80: normal to high intensity, active volatility context. Below 30: low liquidation activity, calm market. BTC overlay helps spot correlation: most TLOI > 90 spikes coincide with significant price movements (>5% in 24h). Some asymmetric spikes (high TLOI without corresponding price movement) typically indicate cascading de-leveraging on a single side of the market.

Key zones

Historically, TLOI peaks above 95 have identified major market purges - episodes where excessive leveraged positions are massively purged. These peaks have historically marked local price troughs in 60-70% of cases (capitulation washout). The 80-95 zone corresponds to high but not extreme volatility - often associated with macro news (FOMC, CPI, halving, ETF approval). The 0-50 zone is dominated by range-trading days without directional pressure.

What to observe

Three readings: (1) isolated TLOI > 95 spike after a period > 30 days below 50 = classic capitulation washout; in the rendered history such spikes have been seen on troughs as well as during extended selling; (2) multiple TLOI > 80 spikes close together (< 7 days) = unstable market regime, the instability of the regime is itself the information; (3) TLOI/price divergence: a high TLOI without proportional price change describes asymmetric de-leveraging (single side purged), whose outcome has been up as well as down depending on the episode.

Historical context

Most notable extreme TLOI episodes: COVID crash March 2020 (long liquidation cascade), Elon Musk Tesla BTC suspend May 2021 (long positions purged, −50% in 24h), Chinese ban September 2021, Terra/Luna collapse May 2022 (DeFi contagion), Three Arrows liquidation cascade June 2022, FTX bankruptcy November 2022 (TLOI 100 multiple days), and during the post-spot-ETF rally peaks January 2024 (shorts liquidated on breakout). Recurring pattern: bull cycles frequently feature massive short liquidations on breakouts, bear cycles long cascades on breakdowns.

Expert notes

⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model: TLOI provides a proprietary reading that distinguishes itself from absolute liquidation indicators available elsewhere. The reading describes overall liquidation intensity; its directional breakdown provides complementary context (the latter being already available via the `derivatives-liq-24h-long-short-split-exchange` chart). The framing implies that 'extreme purge' thresholds adapt to market regimes - a TLOI 95 in October 2025 bull market does not represent the same absolute magnitude as a TLOI 95 in October 2022 bear market. The exact computation method remains Trinity proprietary.

Common mistakes to avoid

Common mistake: interpreting a TLOI 100 as an automatic bullish reading. While historically 60-70% of peaks > 95 have marked local troughs, 30-40% were followed by bearish continuation (cases where initial capitulation does not exhaust selling pressure). TLOI must be combined with other indicators (TFPI for residual pressure, MVRV or Reserve Risk for cycle context) before any decision. Another mistake: directly comparing TLOI between two exchanges - each exchange having its own liquidity and margin rules, liquidation volumes are not equivalent in absolute terms. Relative framing solves this bias at aggregate scale but not at individual-exchange level.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/exchange-intelligence/metrics/derivatives-tloi-liquidation-outlier-index/data?timeframe=90d' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "derivatives-tloi-liquidation-outlier-index",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

• derivatives-liq-24h-long-short-split-exchange
• derivatives-liq-superposed-price
• derivatives-tdoi-overheat-index

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.