TLOI — Trinity Liquidation Outlier IndexTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
Composite Trinity Exclusive that ranks the magnitude of liquidation flushes against their historical distribution. Outlier values flag rare deleveraging events worth contextualizing in cycle position.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
TLOI quantifies aggregate Bitcoin liquidation intensity on perpetual contracts (longs + shorts combined on a rolling daily window), then transforms it into an adaptive percentile rank. The result is bounded between 0 (particularly calm regime of the recent market) and 100 (particularly violent regime of the recent market). This transformation makes the reading directly interpretable and stable across structural market shifts (aggregate OI growth, ETF adoption, expanding exchange base).
How to read
The Y-axis displays the percentile between 0 and 100. Above 90: the day belongs to the top 10% most liquidative days of the past year — macro stress event. Above 95: top 5% — major market flush. Between 50 and 80: normal to high intensity, active volatility context. Below 30: low liquidation activity, calm market. BTC overlay helps spot correlation: most TLOI > 90 spikes coincide with significant price movements (>5% in 24h). Some asymmetric spikes (high TLOI without corresponding price movement) typically indication cascading de-leveraging on a single side of the market.
Key zones
Historically, TLOI peaks above 95 have identified major market 'flushes' — episodes where excessive leveraged positions are massively purged. These peaks have historically marked local price troughs in 60-70% of cases (capitulation washout). The 80-95 zone corresponds to high but not extreme volatility — often associated with macro news (FOMC, CPI, halving, ETF approval). The 0-50 zone is dominated by range-trading days without directional pressure.
What to observe
Three patterns to watch: (1) isolated TLOI > 95 spike after a period > 30 days below 50 = classic capitulation washout, often associated with a significant trough; (2) multiple TLOI > 80 spikes close together (< 7 days) = unstable market regime, wait for stabilisation before taking positions; (3) TLOI/price divergence: a high TLOI without proportional price movement typically indicates asymmetric de-leveraging (single side purged) — often followed by directional movement in the opposite direction.
Historical context
Most notable extreme TLOI episodes: COVID crash March 2020 (long liquidation cascade), Elon Musk Tesla BTC suspend May 2021 (longs flushed -50% in 24h), Chinese ban September 2021, Terra/Luna collapse May 2022 (DeFi contagion), Three Arrows liquidation cascade June 2022, FTX bankruptcy November 2022 (TLOI 100 multiple days), and during the post-spot-ETF rally peaks January 2024 (shorts liquidated on breakout). Recurring pattern: bull cycles frequently feature massive short liquidations on breakouts, bear cycles long cascades on breakdowns.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model — TLOI uses a proprietary normalised statistical approach that distinguishes itself from absolute liquidation indicators available elsewhere. The normalisation horizon was empirically chosen to offer a compromise between recent regime adaptation and statistical stability. The longs + shorts aggregation into a single measure is deliberate: Trinity considers total flush intensity more informative than its directional decomposition (the latter being already available via the `derivatives-liq-24h-long-short-split-exchange` chart). The adaptive normalisation implies that 'extreme flush' thresholds automatically adapt to market regimes — a TLOI 95 in October 2025 bull market does not represent the same absolute magnitude as a TLOI 95 in October 2022 bear market. The exact normalisation method and precise window remain Trinity proprietary.
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: interpreting a TLOI 100 as an automatic bullish reading. While historically 60-70% of peaks > 95 have marked local troughs, 30-40% were followed by bearish continuation (cases where initial capitulation does not exhaust selling pressure). TLOI must be combined with other indicators (TFPI for residual pressure, MVRV or Reserve Risk for cycle context) before any decision. Another mistake: directly comparing TLOI between two exchanges — each exchange having its own liquidity and margin rules, liquidation volumes are not equivalent in absolute terms. Percentile normalisation solves this bias at aggregate scale but not at individual-exchange level.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/exchange-intelligence/derivatives-tloi-liquidation-outlier-index/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "derivatives-tloi-liquidation-outlier-index",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.