Oil vs BTC Correlation

What is it?

This chart overlays the price of WTI Crude Oil with Bitcoin's price and computes a rolling 90-day Pearson correlation coefficient between the two, from daily log-returns. The coefficient is bounded between -1 and +1. A positive value means the two return series moved in the same direction over the window; a negative value means they moved in opposite directions; a value near zero means no linear association was measured over that window. The coefficient measures a linear association over the window. It does not identify a market regime, the role of either asset, or the narrative driving Bitcoin.

How to read

Two lines are displayed: WTI Crude Oil price (primary line, right axis) and BTC price (orange overlay, left axis, log scale). The 90-day rolling Pearson correlation coefficient is computed and attached to each datapoint as hover-tooltip metadata - the numeric value (ranging from -1 to +1) appears when you hover over any day. Vertical markers annotate oil and macro events: WTI negative prices Apr 2020, Russia-Ukraine Feb 2022 (correlation peak +0.75), OPEC+ 2M bpd cut Oct 2022, Dec 2018 crash, OPEC 2014 production hold - each marker carries a source link visible on hover. A sustained positive correlation (above +0.5) means the two return series moved in the same direction most of the time over the window; below -0.3 means they moved in opposite directions most of the time. The coefficient alone does not establish which factor moved either series. Toggle markers via the 'Events' button in the toolbar.

Key zones

• Correlation > +0.6: strong positive association over the 90-day window - the two return series moved in the same direction most of the time. Measured during much of 2021-2022, when both series reacted to the same inflation and monetary policy context. • Correlation +0.2 to +0.6: moderate positive association over the window. • Correlation -0.2 to +0.2: no clear linear association over the window; the two series moved without a common direction most of the time. • Correlation < -0.3: inverse association - the two return series moved in opposite directions most of the time. Measured notably in late 2023 and early 2024, when oil fell while BTC rose. • Historical extremes: +0.75 during the Q1 2022 commodity spike (Ukraine war and inflation), and -0.45 in December 2023.

What to observe

• Changes in sign: when the 90-day correlation crosses zero and stays on the other side for 2+ weeks, the direction of the measured association has changed. The cross from positive to negative in late 2023 coincided with one of BTC's strongest multi-quarter rallies on record; the coefficient alone does not attribute the rally to that change. • One series moving without the other: if oil rises on a supply event while BTC stays flat, the measured association weakens. The coefficient describes that co-movement and does not name its cause. • Joint decline: a positive coefficient during a joint decline means the two return series moved in the same direction downward over the window. • Reversals at extremes: when the correlation reaches ±0.6 and reverses, the measured association typically stays on the new side for 3-6 months. • Oil and policy: oil prices feed inflation measures and therefore policy expectations. The coefficient above does not measure that channel, which needs its own reading.

Historical context

The oil-BTC correlation has evolved as Bitcoin has matured. In 2013-2016, the coefficient was essentially zero - Bitcoin was too small and too crypto-native for macro to matter. From 2017-2019, episodic positive readings appeared during broad market events (December 2018 oil crash and BTC decline). The coefficient rose sharply in March 2020: the COVID crash produced the first sustained high positive reading (+0.7) as both series fell together in the liquidity crisis, then rose together during the stimulus era. Throughout 2021 and early 2022, the two series moved closely together as the broad rally dominated. The Ukraine war (February 2022) briefly lifted both; monetary tightening then pushed BTC down while oil stayed elevated, and the coefficient turned negative. In 2023-2024 the coefficient fell back toward zero and turned negative at times while US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024. The coefficient describes the co-movement and does not attribute it to that change.

Expert notes

The Pearson correlation is computed on daily log-returns over a 90-day rolling window, not on price levels - this avoids spurious correlation from common trends. A 90-day window balances responsiveness (shorter windows are noisy) with stability (longer windows lag). For academic context, Baur & Dimpfl (2021) found the oil-BTC correlation to be regime-dependent and non-stationary, which supports using rolling correlations rather than static measures. The correlation is strongly influenced by the VIX: during high-VIX environments (>25), cross-asset correlations tend to converge toward +1 (the 'correlation crisis' effect). A negative reading describes two return series that moved in opposite directions over the window; it does not establish how either asset will behave next.

Common mistakes to avoid

• 'Oil rises so BTC should rise too': this only holds when the 90-day coefficient is positive. When it is negative, oil can rise on supply constraints while BTC falls on monetary tightening, or the reverse; the coefficient describes the past window, not the next move. • Using instantaneous correlation: A single day of both rising does not mean they are correlated. The 90-day rolling window is the minimum meaningful timeframe. • Reading causality from the coefficient: a Pearson coefficient measures co-movement; it does not establish which series, if either, drives the other. Both can react to a common factor. • Assuming the measured association is permanent: the oil-BTC coefficient has changed sign and strength roughly every 6-12 months since 2020. What was measured last quarter may not hold this quarter. • Confusing nominal oil price with real oil price: the coefficient is computed on nominal WTI log-returns, so a move in the dollar changes the nominal series and therefore the measured coefficient.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/metrics/oil-btc-correlation/data?timeframe=90d' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "oil-btc-correlation",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

• copper-gold-ratio
• vix-vs-btc
• dxy-inverse-vs-btc

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.