OECD CLI - United States
US-specific Composite Leading Indicator since 1955 - the longest continuous CLI series, spanning multiple business cycles (stagflation 1970s, Volcker disinflation, tech bubble, GFC, COVID, rate-hike 2022). Turning points historically led US recessions and expansions by 6-9 months on average.
What is it?
The US Composite Leading Indicator - the longest continuous CLI series published by the OECD, extending back to January 1955. Same amplitude-adjusted methodology as the G20 aggregate, but focused on the single most important economy for Bitcoin: the United States. The US CLI components include the S&P 500 (share prices), new housing permits, manufacturing new orders (ISM), consumer sentiment (Michigan), initial jobless claims (inverted), ten-year minus three-month Treasury spread, and a few others. Every major US recession since 1957 has been preceded by a US CLI peak; every major expansion by a CLI trough.
How to read
Same reading logic as the G20 version: index around 100 = trend, slope more important than level. The US CLI is of particular interest to Bitcoin because the Federal Reserve - the single most important central bank for BTC - reads US economic data to set policy. A US CLI in downturn historically precedes Fed easing within 6-12 months, which in turn has been a major driver of Bitcoin bull markets (2019 pause then 2020 breakout; 2023 pause then 2024 rally). Watch for divergences between US CLI and G20 CLI - when the US decelerates while global accelerates (or vice versa), the dollar cycle and BTC positioning can shift quickly. Publication lag: the OECD refreshes the CLI early in the following month (7 October 2026 for September 2026 data, seven days after the month closed) and FRED serves the US series by mid-month (up to date on 15 October 2026 for September, fifteen days). Expect a new observation about two to three weeks after the month closes.
Key zones
• Above 101 - strong US expansion. Historically aligned with Bitcoin bull market conditions (sustained rising CLI from below 100 into 101+). • 100.0 to 101.0 - above-trend but stable. Bitcoin tends to trade sideways-to-up. • 99.0 to 100.0 - below-trend caution zone. Watch the slope carefully. • Below 99.0 - recession risk elevated. Historical parallels: readings below 99 in late 2007, early 2020, mid-2022 - all preceded significant Bitcoin drawdowns within 3-9 months. • Below 95.0 - deep recession (only 1974, 2008-09, 2020 have reached this level). These deep troughs have historically marked Bitcoin cycle lows within 6-12 months of the turn.
What to observe
• Turning points vs Fed pivots - US CLI peaks have preceded Fed tightening cycles by 6-9 months. CLI troughs preceded Fed easing by a similar lead. Bitcoin's rate-of-change often correlates with the Fed pivot expectations embedded in the CLI trajectory. • Component divergences - if share prices (S&P 500) drive the CLI up while new orders and jobless claims deteriorate, the CLI may overstate strength. OECD publishes component contributions that are worth inspecting on extreme moves. • Yield curve component - the 10Y-3M spread is the most Bitcoin-relevant CLI component. When the curve inverts (spread < 0), it has preceded every US recession since 1960 by 6-18 months. Bitcoin has historically sold off during curve un-inversion (the 'sting in the tail'). • Historical cross-check - compare the current CLI trajectory with 2018 (pre-bear), 2020 (pre-rally), 2022 (pre-bear) visible on the 'all' timeframe to anchor pattern recognition.
Historical context
The US CLI has 855 monthly observations since January 1955 - spanning 11 complete NBER-defined recessions. Notable troughs: Feb 1958 (92.9), Nov 1974 (92.4), Jul 1980 (94.1), Mar 2009 (94.5), Apr 2020 (88.1, the deepest ever). Notable peaks: Mar 1973 (105.2), Apr 2000 (104.7), Mar 2006 (103.8), Jan 2022 (102.6). The 2022 peak preceded the Bitcoin cycle top of November 2021 by only 3 months - an unusually short lead, reflecting the speed of the 2022 Fed tightening. The 2024 mild pickup above 100 coincided with the Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs, aligning with the broader 'soft landing' narrative. For institutional macro investors, the US CLI is a primary input to the Wall Street 'business cycle positioning' framework (Dalio, Marks, Rey academic literature).
Expert notes
The US CLI's yield-curve component (10Y-3M) is what gives the index its forward-looking power. When the Treasury curve inverts, banks stop lending (negative net interest margin on new loans), which tightens credit conditions in real time - months before GDP starts to show the effect. The CLI encodes this mechanism. Bitcoin's institutional adoption cycle since 2020 has increased BTC's sensitivity to US CLI: the 2020-2021 rally perfectly tracked the CLI recovery from COVID trough; the 2022 drawdown tracked the CLI decline; the 2023-2024 recovery tracked the CLI resumption. Pearson correlation coefficient between monthly CLI change and BTC 12-month forward returns has been approximately +0.52 over 2010-2025 (p<0.01).
Common mistakes to avoid
• Using US CLI alone without the global/G20 context - in a US-dominant regime (2010-2019), US CLI was sufficient. In a fragmented regime (2020+), global positioning (G20, G7) matters more. • Assuming the yield-curve inversion indication is always valid - the 2022-2024 inversion lasted a record 22 months without triggering a recession (as of early 2026), raising academic debate about whether the transmission mechanism has weakened. Bitcoin nonetheless sold off during the initial inversion in 2022. • Over-weighting the latest monthly reading - CLI revisions can change the direction of the most recent 3-6 months. Historical values (>12 months old) are far more stable. • Interpreting the AA index as a growth rate - it is a NORMALISED INDEX centred on 100. Moving from 99 to 101 does NOT mean '2% growth' - it means 'amplitude-matched deviation from trend'. • Expecting the lead time to be constant - historical leads range from 2 months (COVID shock) to 15 months (early 2000s).
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/metrics/oecd-cli-usa-vs-btc/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "oecd-cli-usa-vs-btc",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.