WTI / BTC Correlation 90d

What is it?

This metric computes the rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between daily returns of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI DCOILWTICO from FRED) and BTC daily returns. The formula is correlation(returns_wti_24h, returns_btc_24h) over a 90-day rolling window. The correlation typically oscillates between -0.5 and +0.7 across macro context. The reading describes the linear co-movement of the two return series over the window; it does not classify either asset or name a market regime.

How to read

The chart displays the rolling 90-day Pearson correlation as a single yellow line on the Y-axis bounded between -1 and +1. Threshold lines mark the key boundaries calibrated on the actually observed historical range: solid green at +0.3 (positive correlation threshold), dashed gray at 0 (zero boundary), solid red at -0.15 (inverse correlation threshold). Colored zones reinforce the reading: green band above +0.3 (positive correlation) and red band below -0.15 (inverse correlation). The BTC overlay can be toggled on for cross-asset context - it renders on a separate left axis without compressing the correlation scale. The enriched tooltip shows current correlation value at hover.

Key zones

Calibrated to actual historical observed range (post-2010 BTC liquid era, ~-0.30 to +0.40 typical bounds). Above +0.3: strong positive correlation, WTI and BTC returns move in the same direction most of the time (peaks reached during March 2020 COVID +0.40 and Q1 2022 Ukraine commodity inflation crisis). +0.15 to +0.3: moderate positive correlation. -0.15 to +0.15: no clear linear association, WTI and BTC without common direction (most common state). Below -0.15: weak inverse correlation (oil and BTC tend to move in opposite directions, observed late 2023 BTC ETF inflows while WTI declined, troughs around -0.25).

What to observe

• Sustained phases above +0.3: the two return series moved together over the window (March 2020 COVID +0.40, Q1 2022 Ukraine commodity inflation crisis) • Sustained inverse readings below -0.15: the two return series moved in opposite directions over the window (late 2023 BTC ETF inflows while WTI declines, troughs around -0.25) • Rapid transitions (correlation moving from +0.3 to -0.15 in a few weeks) around tradFi macro events (monetary policy changes, oil shocks) • Couple with VIX above 25: cross-asset correlations tend to converge during high-volatility episodes

Historical context

The WTI/BTC correlation has been trackable since 2010 (BTC minimum liquidity post-Mt. Gox). Periods of strong positive correlation above +0.3 coincided with the March 2020 COVID crash (global liquidity shock), the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (commodity inflation crisis), and the December 2018 deleveraging crash. Notable phases of sustained inverse correlation include late 2023 with correlation around -0.45 during BTC ETF approval inflows while WTI declined, and November 2022 FTX capitulation when BTC and WTI diverged. The 90-day rolling correlation methodology is referenced by academic publications on cross-asset correlation analytics.

Expert notes

Pearson correlation captures linear co-variation but not non-linear relationships such as asymmetric tail behavior. Complement with VIX above 25 (crisis context) analysis and BTC ETF flows for cross-source validation. The 90-day window balances reactivity and short-term noise smoothing. A shorter window such as 30 days increases sensitivity to punctual events; a longer window such as 180 days smooths more but delays detection of a change in the measured association. **Cross-rubric reading** - WTI/BTC correlation is intrinsically a cross-asset macro reading. No on-chain counterpart is semantically applicable, since price correlation captures a market dynamic, not a blockchain primitive.

Common mistakes to avoid

Do not confuse correlation with causation - WTI doesn't cause BTC nor vice-versa, they can react simultaneously to a common factor such as liquidity or risk sentiment. Do not extrapolate the current correlation as stable over time - it changes with the macro context. Do not infer an arbitrage opportunity from high correlation - liquidity and transaction costs limit practical exploitation.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/metrics/macro-v2-oil-btc-correlation/data?timeframe=90d' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "macro-v2-oil-btc-correlation",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

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• macro-v2-trinity-code
• macro-v2-ny-fed-recession-probability

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.