Thermocap
Cumulative security spend (all miner revenue ever). A fundamental floor model - market cap historically does not sustainably trade below Thermocap multiples.
What is it?
Thermocap (or Thermocap Aggregate) is the cumulative sum of the dollar value of every block reward (subsidy + fees) paid to miners since Bitcoin's genesis block. It represents the total cost the network has paid for its security. Conceptually, it is Bitcoin's 'fundamental price floor' - the energy and capital invested to produce the current supply. Created by Nic Carter, Thermocap is often compared to Market Cap to assess whether the market values Bitcoin above or below its cumulative production cost.
How to read
This chart offers 3 views via the toolbar selector: • **Raw Thermocap** - monotonically increasing curve (each block adds value). Growth rate reflects mining profitability. • **MCTC (Market Cap / Thermocap)** - the most useful ratio. High multiples indicate the market values Bitcoin far above its cumulative security cost; low multiples indicate a valuation close to fundamental cost. • **RCTC (Realized Cap / Thermocap)** - smoother version of the ratio, using realised cap instead of market cap. Filters speculative volatility and reveals 'organic' valuation relative to security cost.
Key zones
**MCTC**: a multiple above 32 has historically been observed only during euphoric phases of cycle tops (2013, 2017, 2021). Below 8 → bear market troughs. These thresholds evolve structurally as Thermocap slows its growth with each halving (diminishing peaks). **RCTC**: a ratio above 14-16 has coincided with overheated zones. Below 6 → deep accumulation zone. RCTC is more stable than MCTC and better suited for identifying broad zones rather than exact peaks.
What to observe
In **Raw** view, the slope is informative: acceleration indicates rising mining profitability (high price × hash rate), flattening marks miner stress. In **MCTC** view, compare with the Mayer Multiple for confirmation: when both are in extreme zones simultaneously, the historical reading is stronger. Also observe the secular trend of diminishing peaks - each cycle reaches a lower MCTC multiple than the previous one. In **RCTC** view, look for divergences with MCTC: when MCTC is high but RCTC remains moderate, it indicates speculative overheating without grounding in realised capitalisation - an indication of fragility.
Historical context
Thermocap crossed $1 billion around 2017 and $50 billion around 2024. Its growth has naturally slowed at each halving since the block subsidy halves. Transaction fees partially offset this decline, but Thermocap remains dominated by the historical subsidy. The multiple has shown diminishing peaks at each cycle, reflecting asset class maturation.
Expert notes
Thermocap is the conceptual ancestor of Terminal Price and Balanced Price, which derive from it mathematically. This chart integrates the three most commonly used views in the industry (Raw, MCTC, RCTC) in one place - most competitors split them into separate charts. For advanced use, decompose Thermocap into subsidy vs fees to measure Bitcoin's 'security transition' - a crucial topic for network sustainability post-2140. The correlation between Thermocap's growth rate and hash rate is very strong, making it a useful proxy for energy investment in the network.
Common mistakes to avoid
Thermocap does not represent the 'production cost of one bitcoin.' It is the cumulative security cost of the entire network. The marginal cost of producing one BTC is a completely different measure. Moreover, the price at which rewards were valued uses the spot price at the time of the block - which is not necessarily the price at which miners actually sold. For MCTC/RCTC ratios: historical thresholds (32, 8, etc.) are not fixed levels - they evolve structurally with each halving as Thermocap slows its growth. Applying thresholds from the 2013/2017 cycles to the current cycle without adjustment can be misleading.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/thermocap/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "thermocap",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.