Revived Supply Loss
Daily USD loss realized by revived cohorts ≥ 1 year - captures capitulation pressure from late-comers selling at a loss.
What is it?
Revived Supply Loss aggregates the daily realized USD loss by vintage cohorts ≥ 1 year when they spend coins at a loss (current price < acquisition price). Mathematically: for each eligible vintage class, sum of spent UTXOs with PnL < 0, in absolute value. It is the 'loss' component of global revived realized PnL. < 1 year cohorts are excluded (typical short-term rotation). This series isolates capitulation pressure from late-comers (previous bull market acquisitions sold in current bear market).
How to read
USD log scale line. Read as a cumulative daily capitulation measure. The higher the line, the stronger the below-cost-basis selling pressure. Compare with #316 Revived Supply Profit to estimate the market net balance. #315 durably dominating #316 = terminal bear market. #316 durably dominating #315 = healthy bull market.
Key zones
Extreme peaks have coincided with capitulation phases: COVID crash March 2020, Luna collapse May 2022, FTX collapse November 2022. Historical bear bottoms are typically marked by a local Loss USD peak followed by rapid normalisation (sign of seller exhaustion). Prolonged periods of low Loss reflect bullish markets where few old cohorts sell at a loss.
What to observe
Look for divergences with price: a Loss rising while price also rises may indicate that specific cohorts (e.g., ETF rebalancing) capitulate despite the globally bullish context. Also watch the Loss/Profit ratio (#315 / #316): when it exceeds 1.0, the market tips into capitulation zone. Bear bottoms have historically been preceded by brief spikes of this ratio to 2-5x.
Historical context
Major bear bottoms (late 2018, March 2020, November 2022) each produced notable Loss peaks. Intermediate drawdown phases (e.g., May 2021 post-China ban) show local micro-spikes. Before 2017, Loss remains structurally low because few coins were old enough for a ≥ 1 year cohort to be relevant (the market was young).
Expert notes
The P/L symmetry between #315 (Loss) and #316 (Profit) is guaranteed by construction: both series use the same _sum_24h smoothing and the same ≥ 1 year eligibility. To go further, cross-reference with #320 Revived Year Loss (cumulative by vintage) to identify which generation carries current capitulation. The 2017 and 2021 vintages are historically the largest contributors in bear bottoms (acquisitions at previous tops).
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: interpreting a high USD Loss as automatically 'currently bearish'. Capitulation can be a strong contrarian indication: bear bottoms historically form when capitulation reaches an exhaustion peak, not when it persists at mid-level. Do not confuse instant Loss (#315) with cumulative Loss (#320): the former measures daily flow, the latter measures cumulative stock since genesis.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/revived-supply-loss/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "revived-supply-loss",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.