Dormancy Regime DivergenceTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Detects divergences between network activity metrics and price action. When the network sleeps while price rises (or vice versa), regime shifts follow.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
Dormancy Regime Divergence is a Trinity-exclusive metric that compares two regimes: the dormancy regime, measured by Dormancy Flow (old-coin activity contextualised by market cap), and the valuation regime, measured by MVRV. Both are brought onto a common scale before being compared. Their divergence describes the structural gap between old-coin activity and valuation; it determines neither how nor when that gap will resolve.
How to read
The indicator oscillates around zero. High positive values mark that on-chain activity 'leads' price (old coins moving but price has not yet reacted). High negative values mark that price 'leads' on-chain activity (rally without old holder activity confirmation). Sign transitions are the most informative indicators.
Key zones
Divergences beyond +/- 2 standard deviations sit in the tails of their own historical distribution, and are rare by construction. The neutral zone (between -0.5 and +0.5 sigma) indicates normal alignment between on-chain activity and price - no actionable reading.
What to observe
The most significant divergences are those persisting for 30+ days. Brief spikes (< 7 days) are often noise. Watch particularly for prolonged negative divergences in bull markets: price rises while on-chain activity does not follow, so the advance rests on fewer coins actually moving.
Historical context
Backtested on 2012-2025 data, this composite metric identified notable structural divergences before the major corrections of January 2018, May 2021, and November 2021. The 2015 and 2018-2019 accumulation phases showed prolonged positive divergences (on-chain activity structurally leading price).
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - No published reference. Its construction (how each regime is normalised and how the two are combined) is not published. The reading is symmetric around zero by construction; directional interpretation requires macro context (cycle phase, liquidity regime).
Common mistakes to avoid
This metric does not predict price direction but identifies decouplings between on-chain activity and price. A decoupling can resolve through a price movement OR through a change in on-chain behaviour - the resolution direction is not determined. It is an alert indication, not a directional indication.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/dormancy-regime-divergence/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "dormancy-regime-divergence",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.