Bull Market Compare
Side-by-side comparison of all Bitcoin bull runs from their respective cycle lows (bear market bottoms), normalized to percentage gain. Day 0 = cycle trough. See how the current rally stacks up against 2013, 2017, and 2021.
What is it?
Bull Market Compare aligns Bitcoin's bullish phases (from cycle trough to top) on the same time axis, normalised to percentage gain from trough. Unlike Cycle Repeat which covers the entire cycle (1458 days), this chart focuses solely on the rally phase. Each bull run is represented by a curve, enabling comparison of each bull market's speed, amplitude, and structure.
How to read
Steeper curves indicate a more explosive bull market (typically earlier cycles). A curve that decelerates earlier than previous ones suggests a shorter cycle or rounder top. If the current curve lags behind previous ones at the same time stage, the cycle is potentially attenuated.
Key zones
The 2013 and 2017 bull markets showed sharp parabolic accelerations in the final 20–30% of duration (the 'final parabola'). The 2021 bull market was structurally different with a double top and less pronounced acceleration. The 300–500 day comparison zone from trough is the most informative for the current cycle.
What to observe
Watch the current curve's slope relative to previous ones. Early flattening (curve compressing before reaching past cycles' gains) is an indication of maturation. Conversely, a sudden acceleration aligned with the historical timing of the 'final parabola' would reinforce the cyclicality thesis.
Historical context
The 2020–2021 bull market was the first to show a clear double top structure (April 2021, November 2021). The 2013 bull market (also double but closer together) and 2017 (single parabolic top) had different structures. This structural divergence suggests Bitcoin bull markets are evolving in complexity.
Expert notes
Percentage gain normalisation masks the absolute difference in market cap. A 2000% gain in 2013 represented a few billion in flows; the same gain today would require hundreds of billions. This asymmetry makes amplitude comparisons fundamentally biased. Timing remains the most comparable dimension, amplitude the least reliable.
Common mistakes to avoid
Considering that a bull market 'lagging' behind past curves will necessarily catch up is a reasoning error. The lag may simply reflect a different reality (larger market, lower volatility, increased regulation). Similarly, extrapolating a past cycle's amplitude onto the current cycle ignores structural maturation.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/bull-market-compare/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "bull-market-compare",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.