Active Address Momentum
Z-score 90-day rolling on average daily active addresses - detects acceleration vs deceleration of network adoption. Distinct from `active-addresses` count chart (this measures cycle regime momentum, not raw count).
What is it?
This indicator measures the 90-day rolling z-score of the `active_addrs_average_24h` series (24h average of daily active addresses, exposed by the Trinity on-chain source with date indexing). Formula : Z = (s - mean_90(s)) / std_90(s). A positive z-score indicates current addressing activity exceeds its 90-day mean ; a negative z-score indicates a relative trough. The 90d rolling captures cycle regimes rather than daily noise. The metric is centered on relative temporal derivative - distinct from the `active-addresses` chart which measures raw count.
How to read
The Y axis is centered on 0 with ±1σ and ±2σ bands materializing statistical thresholds. A reading above +2σ indicates network activity overheating (rare, ~5% of historical time) ; a reading below -2σ indicates activity capitulation (also rare). The horizontal line at 0 separates expansion phases (positive) from contraction phases (negative) relative to the 90d mean.
Key zones
Zone -2σ and below : strong capitulation, historically associated with bear market troughs. Zone -2σ to -1σ : sub-regime activity. Zone -1σ to +1σ : normal regime (~68% of time). Zone +1σ to +2σ : moderate overheating. Zone +2σ and above : extreme overheating, historically coinciding with cycle euphoria phases. These zones are calibrated by 90d rolling stddev and remain valid cycle after cycle (vs absolute thresholds which drift).
What to observe
Watch for crossings of the 0 line which mark a regime change (expansion → contraction or vice versa). Compare with BTC price : a divergence (z-score rising but price stagnating) suggests fundamental adoption is catching up with valuation. Extreme peaks (>+2σ or <-2σ) are structural cycle markers rather than short-term timing indicators.
Historical context
Post-halving periods (2020-05-11, 2024-04-19) have historically preceded network activity expansion phases materialized by persistent positive z-scores 6-12 months after the event. Conversely, stress episodes (FTX collapse 2022-11-11, COVID crash 2020-03-12) produced marked negative z-scores which then heralded cycle troughs. The Ordinals genesis episode (2023-01-20) introduced a new daily activity regime - the 90d rolling window reabsorbed this structural change in ~3 months.
Expert notes
Trinity substitution (pre-diag session #28 D4.a) : the raw `active_addrs` series is not date-indexable on the Trinity on-chain source (HTTP 400 response on `/date` index, only `/height` responds). The calculation therefore uses the 24h average `active_addrs_average_24h` (200 OK on `/date`) - semantics preserved for 90d z-score cycle regime detection, light smoothing of daily outliers without material impact. The 90d window is an industry standard for cycle regime detection (vs 30d short-term noisy or 365d long macro-cycle).
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not confuse `active-address-momentum` with the prod chart `active-addresses` which measures the raw COUNT of daily active addresses (absolute level). Here, we measure the relative temporal DERIVATIVE (90d z-score) - acceleration or deceleration of adoption, not its level. A z-score at 0 means « activity = 90d mean » even if the raw count is very high or very low in absolute terms. For combined analysis : compare the raw count (level) and the momentum (cycle regime).
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/active-address-momentum/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "active-address-momentum",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.