Methodology · Proprietary indicator
Trinity Risk Index (TRI)
TRI reads accumulated cycle risk as a multi-factor backdrop. A low reading frames a resilient, low-risk environment; a high reading frames a stretched, concentrated one. It is intended to frame drawdown sensitivity — how much slack the cycle has left — not to time a top.
Concept overview
TRI reads accumulated cycle risk as a multi-factor backdrop. A low reading frames a resilient, low-risk environment; a high reading frames a stretched, concentrated one. It is intended to frame drawdown sensitivity — how much slack the cycle has left — not to time a top.
Phase interpretation (0-100 scale)
- 0-25Low-risk / accumulation backdrop
- 25-50Rising risk
- 50-75Elevated risk
- 75-100High-risk / late-cycle backdrop
These bands are interpretive: they are read as a position, never as a buy or sell trigger.
Historical context
Across the four Bitcoin cycles, TRI has historically climbed into its upper band during stretched, late-cycle advances and receded into its lower band through capitulation and recovery. As with the family, the intended lens is relative to the cycle in progress.
Strengths & limitations
TRI's strength is framing accumulated, concentrated risk in one reading. Its limitation is that risk framing is probabilistic context, not a deterministic top or bottom marker.
Why the formula is not disclosed
Trinity Risk Index is a proprietary Trinity Insights analytical model. Its exact formula, inputs, weights, windows and number of components are not disclosed (EXCLUSIVE Trinity). Only the bounded 0-100 reading and its interpretation are exposed. Access is via the Trinity Insights dashboard (Pro tier or above), the MCP server and the REST API.
Related composites
Regulatory status and legal notice
Trinity Insights is an analytical tool for Bitcoin on-chain and macro-intelligence, intended for educational and informational purposes only. Content provided does not constitute investment advice, personalized recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any asset. Trinity Insights is not a registered Financial Investment Advisor (CIF) under the French Monetary and Financial Code, not a registered or licensed Digital Asset Service Provider (PSAN) under the French AMF, and not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trinity Insights does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or relevance of the data presented. Always do your own research before making any decision.