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Twelve-month-ahead U.S. recession probability derived from the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield curve spread, using the public Estrella & Hardouvelis 1991 probit methodology calibrated on 1959-2009 historical data. Inversions historically precede effective recessions within 12 months.
The detailed educational module for NY Fed Recession Probability — what it is, how to read it, key zones, what to observe, historical context and common misinterpretations — is reserved to authenticated Trinity Insights subscribers. Trinity uses the Education-Driven Chart Design (EDCD) methodology to write each module bilingual FR/EN, atemporal, and AMF-compliant.
Trinity subscribers can query this chart programmatically from Claude Desktop, Cursor, ChatGPT, Gemini, Windsurf, VS Code Copilot or Perplexity using the Trinity Insights MCP Server. The MCP scope reflects exactly your subscription tier.
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-ny-fed-recession-probability",
"timeframe": "1y",
"language": "en"
}Looking for the general definition of an industry-standard term (MVRV, SOPR, NUPL, halving, hash rate, etc.) ? See the public Trinity glossary — concept definitions are atemporal and open access. Chart-specific educational modules remain subscriber-only.
Trinity Insights is an analytical tool for Bitcoin on-chain and macro-intelligence, intended for educational and informational purposes only. Content provided does not constitute investment advice, personalized recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any asset. Trinity Insights is not a registered Financial Investment Advisor (CIF) under the French Monetary and Financial Code, not a registered or licensed Digital Asset Service Provider (PSAN) under the French AMF, and not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trinity Insights does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or relevance of the data presented. Always do your own research before making any decision.