Cost-Basis Cycle Thermometer
A 0-100 cycle thermometer reading where the BTC spot price sits relative to the MEDIAN cost basis of the supply - the median of the on-chain cost-basis distribution. The reading is a Trinity percentile-rank construction of how far spot sits above that median across the full history, so it is bounded 0-100, repaint-free (a past reading never changes as new data arrives), and comparable across cycles. The median is robust to the cheap early-coin tail that drags the mean (realized price) down, sharpening the top readings. Empirically across 3.5 verified cycles the Cold zone (low) coincided with cycle lows and the Hot zone (high) with cycle highs: forward one-year outcomes from the Cold zone were historically strong while outcomes from the Hot zone were historically weak. A reading of regime, not a recommendation.
Full educational module - Trinity subscribers
The detailed educational module for Cost-Basis Cycle Thermometer — what it is, how to read it, key zones, what to observe, historical context and common misinterpretations — is reserved to authenticated Trinity Insights subscribers. Trinity exclusive composites disclose only their score and atemporal interpretation zones; their formulas, weights and inputs are never published.
Access programmatically via Trinity MCP
Trinity subscribers can query this chart programmatically from Claude Desktop, Cursor, ChatGPT, Gemini, Windsurf, VS Code Copilot or Perplexity using the Trinity Insights MCP Server. The MCP scope reflects exactly your subscription tier.
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cycle-cost-basis-thermometer",
"timeframe": "1y",
"language": "en"
}Bitcoin / on-chain / macro concept definitions
Looking for the general definition of an industry-standard term (MVRV, SOPR, NUPL, halving, hash rate, etc.) ? See the public Trinity glossary — concept definitions are atemporal and open access. Chart-specific educational modules remain subscriber-only.
Regulatory status and legal notice
Trinity Insights is an analytical tool for Bitcoin on-chain and macro-intelligence, intended for educational and informational purposes only. Content provided does not constitute investment advice, personalized recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any asset. Trinity Insights is not a registered Financial Investment Advisor (CIF) under the French Monetary and Financial Code, not a registered or licensed Digital Asset Service Provider (PSAN) under the French AMF, and not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trinity Insights does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or relevance of the data presented. Always do your own research before making any decision.